CynicalOsprey wrote:
As much as I hate to say it, there IS a SLIVER of credibility to the 2012 thing, but not for the reasons that people think.
That sliver of credibility is mainly due to commonly-occuring events.
The main point that people bring up: "the world will end because the mayan calender ends in 2012" needs to be shot with a gerbil. Their calendar isn't a linear one in the same way we think of it. Most of the ancient cultures (hitites, Mayans, Aztecs, even ancient chinese if memory serves) had cyclical calendars. They didn't really care how many cycles had existed or will exist, all they cared about was the current cycle we are in.
Exactly. The end of the Mayan calendar cycle is little different from flipping the page back to January at the end of the year.
In 2012 there is a "planetary alignment" thing where the rotation of the earth around the sun will shift slightly, (correct me if I'm wrong on the specifics here) which will change the position of the stars around us. This was the basis of the mayan calendar and their cycle, and in 2012 that cycle will reset once again.
You started out so well...
The more precise galactic alignment actually occurred in 1998. Additionally, any shift that would occur is going to be so gradual as to not be at all detectable by anyone without instruments to track it. Considering that one degree of shift in our view of the constellations takes 72 years, the idea of this happening in a single day is absurd.
There's always threat of an asteroid strike but Nasa has a flying magnifying glass that can supposedly repel them if circumstances allow. I'm not quite sure how that works exactly though, as I don't posses my rocket scientist sister's keen intellect and 160 IQ.
I'd like to hear more about it, because that sounds kind of absurd. I do know that we are capable of locating and projecting the course of most asteroids that would come close to the Earth, but based on what you said here I'm highly skeptical of a "flying magnifying glass".
However, there is possibly something that we need to be concerned about: Solar storms. Every 22 years, the sun has a higher rate of sunspots, and thus solar flares. Solar flares are nothing new and the earth is bombarded with them quite often (northern lights, anybody?) However on that 22 year period, that solar flare could be powerful enough to completely fry all of the satellites orbiting earth.
THAT is what will cause the problems.
Communications would be knocked out, some panic would ensue, etc etc. Supposedly the government is "taking action" to help protect us, but other than a possible few months of mayhem and a few more thousand cases of skin cancer, I'm pretty sure we'll survive.
The extent of communication impact is no different and little more severe than what was experienced during a recent bit of solar activity (
just over a year ago)- that is, not a whole hell of a lot. Considering the resources we have monitoring the sun for solar activity, the idea that we might get caught unaware or that we would fail to protect sensitive satellites and equipment. So no, the blackout wouldn't last for "months", and there will likely be no panic over it, because people probably won't notice unless their satellite TV picture suddenly gets fuzzy for a little bit.
For more information about 2012, there's a great graphic
here from Information is Beautiful, and Phil Plait's
Bad Astronomy page has some of the best astronomy information you can find.
I suggest that everyone commenting here or with any interest look into it.
